Wall Street heavyweight J.P. Morgan is sounding a bullish note on Argentine stocks just ahead of the country’s elections, seeing what it calls an “upside-asymmetric” opportunity despite the political uncertainty. In its latest research, the bank argues that much of the downside may already be priced in — making now a potentially interesting entry point for select names.

According to the report, Argentina’s equities have taken a beating recently: the peso has weakened by roughly 10 % and the benchmark MSCI Argentina index has dropped about 15 % in dollar terms. J.P. Morgan’s team believes these moves reflect the market’s assumption that the ruling party will underperform. With that expectation already baked in, the bank sees a scenario in which actual results—especially if better than feared—could trigger a sharp rebound.

The banking sector stands out as one of the most promising. J.P. Morgan highlights that bank lending to GDP in Argentina is among the lowest in the region—roughly 11 %—compared with 20-25% in Mexico and 40-55% in Colombia or Brazil. This suggests room for growth once conditions improve. For this to play out, the bank notes, the rulebook needs to be consistent and credit risk must remain under control.

Energy, too, is on J.P. Morgan’s radar. The bank previously upgraded the state-run oil firm YPF, citing its shift toward shale production and the broader reform push under President Javier Milei. They believe the energy complex could be one of the strongest anchors of Argentina’s rebound.

That said, J.P. Morgan tempers its optimism with caution. The upcoming elections are a wildcard, and the bank warns that if political risks escalate or reforms stall, gains could reverse. Timing matters. For investors, the implication is clear: this is not a broad signal to dive in without discipline—but a call to consider selective exposure in a high-risk/high-reward set-up.

For U.S. investors, the message is worth noting: Argentina is no longer just a crisis story—it may be one of the few emerging markets where outsized gains await if the pieces fall into place. But success hinges on execution, political clarity, and reform momentum.