A national survey by Arena Pública shows President Javier Milei with 50.8% of the intended vote, a figure that would secure a first-round re-election without the need for a ballotage.

A national survey conducted by the consulting firm Arena Pública in March 2026 has placed President Javier Milei in a dominant position ahead of the 2027 elections. The results show levels of voting intent that would allow him to win without a second round.

According to the survey, La Libertad Avanza would reach 50.8% of the national vote. This percentage not only exceeds the threshold required by the Constitution to win in the first round but also represents a historic political milestone. This level of support places the current administration above historical precedents, surpassing even the electoral performances of Carlos Menem in 1989 and 1995.

Political Landscape and Competition

In the current electoral scheme, Milei’s party consolidates itself as the primary force in the country, holding a massive lead over its competitors.

The breakdown for the first round is as follows:

  • La Libertad Avanza (Milei): 50.8%

  • Peronism/Kirchnerism: 30.3%

  • Blank Votes: 6%

  • Left Front (FIT): 5.6%

  • Other forces: 2.8%

  • Undecided: 2.3%

  • United Provinces: 2.2%

Potential Runoff Scenario

The President’s strength is also evident in a hypothetical runoff. In a second-round matchup against the ultra-Kirchnerist Axel Kicillof, Milei would obtain 54.3% of the votes compared to Kicillof’s 37.3%, expanding his lead to 17 points.

This scenario suggests that the President not only maintains his base but also successfully captures additional support during instances of high polarization.

High Voter Loyalty

One of the key factors behind these numbers is the high level of loyalty among the administration’s voters. According to the survey, 86.1% of those who voted for Milei in 2023 would choose him again, forming a solid and stable core of support. In a runoff scenario, this support deepens, with 89.8% of his original voters maintaining their backing.

Geographically, the interior of the country remains a decisive stronghold for the administration, providing enough support to widely offset other districts and sustain the national lead. With this data, the Arena Pública study projects an electoral landscape where Javier Milei is clearly positioned as the leading candidate for 2027, backed by broad popular support.