After wholesale inflation marked a decline of 0.7 percentage points in February compared to January, President Javier Milei celebrated the reduction and estimated that this deceleration will be reflected in retail prices.

“Below, I will present calculations that are not projections but serve to see how dynamically inflation is falling,” the head of state began by saying in a post on his official account on the social network X.

“Wholesale inflation for the last twelve months is traveling at 26% annually. In turn, the annualized rate for the two-month period is traveling at 17%, while the annualized rate for the month of February is at 13%. You can frame it however you like, but inflation is going down and Wholesale Prices anticipate what is coming in the future for Retail Prices,” he explained.

In this regard, Milei considered that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) “still needs to purge the adjustment of utility rates and monetary imbalances that take longer than the Wholesale Price Index (WPI).”

During a lecture at the Córdoba Stock Exchange last week, the president had reaffirmed his vision on the economic course and projected that in August, monthly inflation could drop below 1 percent.

Opening his presentation, he focused on the economic context and expectations for the country. “Is inflation high? Yes, of course, but when we arrived, it was 1.5% daily. We are coming from hell,” he stated. Then, he emphasized: “By August, inflation should start with a zero.”

In the same vein, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, shared the presidential goal of the CPI starting with 0% in the second half of the year, though he left the door open for it to happen in the months following August.

Days after learning that the inflationary dynamic for February was 2.9%, the same figure as in January, Caputo asserted: “We expected the data. We knew it would be in that range because the rise in meat and utility rates hit. It concerns us, but above all, we are dealing with it. Monetary policy continues to aim at having inflation as low as possible.”

Meanwhile, he insisted that inflation could drop below 1% in August, but with nuances. “It is very difficult to predict the exact timing in the indices, but I am not worried because it is a matter of time. If it is not August, it will be September or October,” he noted.

Wholesale Inflation Slowed Down

The wholesale price index recorded an increase of 1% in February, which implied a deceleration of 0.7 percentage points compared to January’s record. In year-on-year terms, the variation reached 25.6%, while in the first two months, the cumulative increase reached 2.7%. Thus, the monthly advance was below the CPI, which marked a 2.9% increase for February 2026.

According to data from Indec, the Internal Wholesale Price Index (IPIM) showed a 1% rise compared to the previous month, driven by a 1.3% increase in domestic goods and a 2.7% drop in imported ones.

Within national products, the largest contributions to the IPIM came from crude oil and gas (0.27%), food and beverages (0.26%), agricultural products (0.24%), refined petroleum products (0.23%), and electric energy (0.12%).

The Basic Internal Wholesale Price Index (IPIB) recorded a 0.7% rise in February, the result of a 0.9% advance in national products and a 2.6% drop in imported ones.

Regarding the Basic Producer Price Index (IPP), which excludes taxes, the variation was 0.7%, with growth of 1.0% in primary products and 0.6% in manufactured goods and electric energy.

A report from the consultancy LCG highlighted that wholesale inflation “remained below retail inflation in goods: 1% vs. 2.3% in February. This has been occurring for 5 consecutive months, suggesting that this dynamic hides a certain recomposition of margins in the retail sector, which had been heavily compressed between May and September 2025.”

For economists at the macroeconomic analysis firm, exchange rate stability “removes pressure on tradable goods and therefore on the wholesale inflation index, where their weight is more relevant.” However, they noted that adjustments in utility rates and fuels, and “a still high inertia in the retail segment, will impose a floor on convergence.” Consequently, they projected an IPIM of 30% annually for 2026.