The surprise announcement that U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration are strongly backing Argentine President Javier Milei sparked a wave of optimism in markets—but also a growing sense of unease among investors about what happens if Milei’s movement stumbles.

On one hand, Argentina’s ties with the U.S. have never seemed closer. Trump publicly praised Milei’s reform agenda and the two leaders met recently in Washington, reinforcing the notion that Argentina may finally be gaining the international standing and financial support it’s long sought. That shift lifted Argentine assets and offered hope that the country can break its cycle of crisis.

Yet the flip side is hard to ignore. Trump’s remarks—suggesting U.S. support may depend on Milei’s electoral success—have rattled markets that hate conditional commitments. Investors worry the support may vanish if Argentina fails to secure the legislative results or if Milei’s agenda stalls. One headline alone triggered a sell-off in Argentina’s sovereign bonds and a drop in the peso.

The tension is clear: for Argentina, the U.S. alliance is a huge opportunity—but also a major risk. If international support is tied to political outcomes at home, then Argentina’s economy remains vulnerable to shifts that no one can fully predict. For investors, the story is now less about “when” than “if”—if Milei delivers reforms, if the legislative backing holds, if markets stay confident.

In short, the message coming out of Buenos Aires and Washington is: Argentina may have turned a corner—but the proof will be in sustained results. Investors are watching closely.